Putting the results in context

The DeSart model is captured in the econometric models component of the PollyVote. The model predicts that Clinton will obtain 50.3% of the two-party vote share in Pennsylvania, whereas Trump will win 49.7%. In comparison, on August 7 Trump was still predicted to garner 0.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Individual econometric models should be interpreted with caution, since they may incorporate large biases. Instead of relying on results from single econometric models, we recommend to look at combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Pennsylvania has Clinton at 51.9% of the two-party vote. Compared to her numbers in the DeSart model Clinton's econometric model average is 1.6 percentage points better.

The DeSart model compared with PollyVote's forecast

The results of the DeSart model for Clinton are thus 2.9 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 53.2% in Pennsylvania. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 2.4 percentage points lower.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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