The DeSart model published an updated prediction of the election result. The model predicts that Clinton will garner 50.4% of the two-party vote share in New Hampshire, whereas Trump will win 49.6%. In comparison, on August 7, Clinton was predicted to gain only 49.6% of the vote.
In New Hampshire, the popular vote is often decided by a narrow margin. This is the reason why the state is commonly viewed as a purple state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.
Putting the results in context
Single econometric models should be treated with caution, because they often contain substantial biases. At least, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other econometric models
Clinton currently achieves 52.2% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models in New Hampshire. This value is 1.8 percentage points higher than her corresponding numbers in the DeSart model.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 52.2% of the two-party vote in New Hampshire, which is 1.8 percentage points above the results of the DeSart model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 2.3 percentage points lower.