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Putting the results in context

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The Jerome model provided an updated forecast of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will garner 51.5% of the two-party vote share in Nevada, while Trump will win 48.5%.

In Nevada, the election outcome is usually decided by a narrow margin. This is why the state is commonly viewed as a purple state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, because they often incorporate large errors. At the very least, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

If we look at an average of Nevada econometric models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 51.3%. Relative to her numbers in the Jerome model Clinton's econometric model average is 0.2 percentage points lower.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 0.6 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 50.9% in Nevada. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 1.3 percentage points lower.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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