The Jerome model provided an updated forecast of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will garner 51.5% of the two-party vote share in Nevada, while Trump will win 48.5%.
In Nevada, the election outcome is usually decided by a narrow margin. This is why the state is commonly viewed as a purple state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, because they often incorporate large errors. At the very least, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other econometric models
If we look at an average of Nevada econometric models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 51.3%. Relative to her numbers in the Jerome model Clinton's econometric model average is 0.2 percentage points lower.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 0.6 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 50.9% in Nevada. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 1.3 percentage points lower.