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Putting the results in context

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The DeSart model is included in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 51.0% for Clinton and 49.0% for Trump in Nevada. In comparison, on August 7 Trump was still predicted to garner 0.0% of the vote.

Nevada is traditionally a purple state, where the two major political parties have historically gained similar levels of voter support. This is why the election outcome here is considered crucial in determining who will win the majority of electoral votes.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of an individual econometric model. Rather than relying on results from single econometric models, one should look at combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Nevada sees Clinton at 51.2% of the two-party vote. In comparison to her numbers in the DeSart model Clinton's econometric model average is 0.2 percentage points higher.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The results of the DeSart model for Clinton are thus 0.1 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 50.9% in Nevada. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 1.7 percentage points lower.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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