Putting the results in context

The DeSart model is captured in the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. The model expects that Clinton will receive 51.0% of the two-party vote share in Nevada, whereas Trump will win 49.0%.

Historically, Nevada has been a swing state, in which neither the Republican Party nor the Democratic Party has had overwhelming support to secure that state's electoral college votes. Therefore, forecasts here are of particular interest.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, since they sometimes contain large errors. At the very least, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

Looking at an average of Nevada econometric models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 51.2%. This value is 0.2 percentage points higher than her respective numbers in the DeSart model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The results of the DeSart model for Clinton are thus 0.1 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 50.9% in Nevada. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 1.8 percentage points lower.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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