Jerome model in Nebraska: Trump with clear lead

The Jerome model published an updated forecast of the election outcome. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 41.6% for Clinton and 58.4% for Trump in Nebraska. In comparison, on August 7, Clinton was predicted to gain 58.4% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Single econometric models may include substantial biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Rather, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results compared to other econometric models

Looking at an average of Nebraska econometric models, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 61.3%. This value is 2.9 percentage points higher than his corresponding numbers in the Jerome model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 61.1% of the two-party vote in Nebraska, which is 2.7 percentage points above the results of the Jerome model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 11.1 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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