DeSart model in Nebraska: Trump is in the lead

The DeSart model published an updated forecast of the election result. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 35.9% for Clinton and 64.1% for Trump in Nebraska. In comparison, on August 7 Trump was predicted to win 0.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Single econometric models should be treated with caution, since they may contain large biases. Rather than trusting the results from single econometric models, we recommend to rely on combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates different methods and data.

Results compared to other econometric models

Looking at an average of Nebraska econometric models, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 61.3%. In comparison to his numbers in the DeSart model Trump's econometric model average is 2.9 percentage points lower.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The results of the DeSart model for Trump are thus 3.0 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 61.1% in Nebraska. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 16.8 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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