NBC/WSJ/MaristNBC/WSJ/Marist released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Florida were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
In Florida, the popular vote is usually decided by a narrow margin. This is the reason why the state is commonly regarded as a battleground state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.
NBC/WSJ/MaristNBC/WSJ/Marist poll results
The poll was conducted between July 5 and July 11. The sample size was 871 registered voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.3 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be regarded with caution, since they can contain large errors. At least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, we convert them into two-party vote shares. The corresponding figures are 45.7% for Clinton and 0.0% for Trump. In the most recent NBC/WSJ/MaristNBC/WSJ/Marist poll on April 5 Clinton obtained 54.4%, while Trump obtained 45.6%.
Results in comparison to other polls
When compared to the average results of other polls Clinton performed worse with 48.4 percentage points, while Trump did better with 48.4 percentage points. This margin is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier. The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 49.4% and Trump % of the two-party vote in Florida.