Putting the results in context

The DeSart model released an updated forecast of the election result. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 51.6% for Clinton and 48.4% for Trump in Minnesota. In comparison, on August 7 Trump was still predicted to obtain 0.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, since they can incorporate large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single econometric models, you should consult combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results vs. other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Minnesota has Clinton at 55.1% of the two-party vote. Relative to her numbers in the DeSart model Clinton's econometric model average is 3.5 percentage points higher.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The results of the DeSart model for Clinton are thus 2.2 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 53.8% in Minnesota. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 1.1 percentage points lower.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.