Jerome model in Minnesota: Clinton with clear lead

The Jerome model provided an updated prediction of the election outcome. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 58.5% for Clinton and 41.5% for Trump in Minnesota. In comparison, on August 7, Clinton was predicted to end up with only 41.5% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, as they sometimes contain large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single econometric models, we recommend to use combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Minnesota sees Clinton at 55.1% of the two-party vote. Compared to her numbers in the Jerome model Clinton's econometric model average is 3.5 percentage points worse.

The Jerome model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction

The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 4.7 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 53.8% in Minnesota. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 5.8 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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