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DeSart model: Trump in Michigan trails by a small margin

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The DeSart model released an updated prediction of the election outcome. The model forecasts that Clinton will obtain 52.5% of the two-party vote share in Michigan, while Trump will end up with 47.5%.

Putting the results in context

Single econometric models can include substantial biases, and should be treated with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single econometric models, the recommended strategy consult combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates different methods and data.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Michigan sees Clinton at 53.8% of the two-party vote. Compared to her numbers in the DeSart model Clinton's econometric model average is 1.3 percentage points higher.

The DeSart model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction

The results of the DeSart model for Clinton are thus 1.3 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 53.8% in Michigan. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 0.3 percentage points lower.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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