The DeSart model published an updated forecast of the election outcome. The model expects that Clinton will collect 61.4% of the two-party vote share in Maryland, while Trump will win 38.6%. In comparison, on August 7, Clinton was predicted to gain only 38.6% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Individual econometric models should be regarded with caution, as they may incorporate large errors. Rather, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other econometric models
Clinton currently runs at 61.1% of the two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models in Maryland. Relative to her numbers in the DeSart model Clinton's econometric model average is 0.3 percentage points lower.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The results of the DeSart model for Clinton are thus 2.9 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 64.3% in Maryland. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 8.7 percentage points higher.