Leading indicators model: Trails by a small margin

The Leading indicators model is included in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 52.0% for Clinton and 48.0% for Trump. In comparison, on August 7 Trump was still predicted to win 0.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, because they sometimes contain large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single econometric models, we recommend to use combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on different methods and data.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

When compared to the average results of other econometric models Clinton performed better with 3.2 percentage points, while Trump did worse with 3.2 percentage points.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

Clinton has 0.8 percentage points less and Trump has 0.8 percentage points more when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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