JMC AnalyticsJMC Analytics published the results of a new poll. In this poll, respondents from Florida were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Historically, Florida has been a battleground state, in which no single party has had overwhelming support to clinch that state's electoral college votes. Therefore, predictions in this state are of particular importance.
JMC AnalyticsJMC Analytics poll results
Of those who answered the question, 42.0% said that they intend to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 47.0% declared that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was in the field between July 9 and July 10. The sample size was 700 likely voters. If one takes into account the poll's margin of error of +/-3.7 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls often include large biases, which is why they should be treated with caution. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 47.2% for Clinton and 52.8% for Trump. On August 7 Clinton received 52.8% in the JMC AnalyticsJMC Analytics poll and Trump received only 0.0%.
Comparison to other polls
Trump is currently at 48.4% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent polls in Florida. Relative to his numbers in the JMC AnalyticsJMC Analytics poll Trump's poll average is 4.4 percentage points lower. This margin is outside the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The most recent PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 49.4% of the two-party vote in Florida. Hence, Polly's combined forecast is 3.4 points below his polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin suggests that this deviation is negligible.