Results of a new poll administered by FOX 5 AtlantaFOX 5 were distributed. The poll asked respondents from Georgia for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
FOX 5 AtlantaFOX 5 poll results
The results show that 41.0% of interviewees indicated that they would give their vote to former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 44.0% indicated that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from May 15 to May 15 among 587 likely voters. The error margin is +/-4.0 percentage points, which means that the levels of voter support for the candidates of both parties do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, one should not have too much faith in the results of a single poll. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we convert Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 48.2% for Clinton and 51.8% for Trump. To compare: 51.8% was obtained by Clinton in the FOX 5 AtlantaFOX 5 poll on August 7, for Trump this result was only 0.0%.
Comparison to other polls
Looking at an average of Georgia polls, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 51.4%. This value is 0.4 percentage points lower than his corresponding numbers in the FOX 5 AtlantaFOX 5 poll. This margin is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 52.6% of the two-party vote in Georgia. Hence, the combined PollyVote is 0.8 points above his polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's sampling error.