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Putting the results in context


The DeSart model provided an updated prediction of the election outcome. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 50.6% for Clinton and 49.4% for Trump in Iowa. In comparison, on August 7, Clinton was predicted to win only 49.4% of the vote.

Historically, Iowa has been a purple state, in which neither the GOP nor the Democrats have had overwhelming support to clinch that state's electoral college votes. Therefore, forecasts in this state are of particular value.

Putting the results in context

Individual econometric models should be regarded with caution, because they may incorporate large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single econometric models, we recommend to use combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which incorporates different data.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

If we look at an average of Iowa econometric models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 52.5%. This value is 1.9 percentage points higher than her corresponding numbers in the DeSart model.

The DeSart model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction

The results of the DeSart model for Clinton are thus 0.8 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 51.4% in Iowa. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 2.1 percentage points lower.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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