The Jerome model provided an updated prediction of the election outcome. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 43.8% for Clinton and 56.2% for Trump in Kansas. In comparison, on August 7, Clinton was predicted to win 56.2% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Single econometric models should be treated with caution, since they can incorporate substantial errors. Rather, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other econometric models
Trump is currently at 60.1% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models in Kansas. This value is 3.9 percentage points higher than his corresponding numbers in the Jerome model.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 57.8% of the two-party vote in Kansas, which is 1.6 percentage points above the results of the Jerome model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 8.9 percentage points higher.