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Utah: Jerome model shows Trump in the lead

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The Jerome model published an updated prediction of the election outcome. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 35.4% for Clinton and 64.6% for Trump in Utah. In comparison, on August 7, Clinton was predicted to win 64.6% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Single econometric models should be regarded with caution, since they often incorporate large biases. Rather than trusting the results from single econometric models, the evidence-based approach is to look at combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which incorporates different data.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

If we look at an average of Utah econometric models, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 71.4%. This value is 6.8 percentage points higher than his respective numbers in the Jerome model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 61.4% of the two-party vote in Utah, which is 3.2 percentage points below the results of the Jerome model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 17.3 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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