The Jerome model published an updated prediction of the election outcome. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 35.4% for Clinton and 64.6% for Trump in Utah. In comparison, on August 7, Clinton was predicted to win 64.6% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Single econometric models should be regarded with caution, since they often incorporate large biases. Rather than trusting the results from single econometric models, the evidence-based approach is to look at combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which incorporates different data.
Results in comparison to other econometric models
If we look at an average of Utah econometric models, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 71.4%. This value is 6.8 percentage points higher than his respective numbers in the Jerome model.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 61.4% of the two-party vote in Utah, which is 3.2 percentage points below the results of the Jerome model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 17.3 percentage points higher.