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Texas: Jerome model shows Trump in the lead

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The Jerome model is part of the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 46.8% for Clinton and 53.2% for Trump in Texas.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, as they may incorporate large errors. Rather, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

If we look at an average of Texas econometric models, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 57.0%. Relative to his numbers in the Jerome model Trump's econometric model average is 3.8 percentage points higher.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 55.5% of the two-party vote in Texas, which is 2.3 percentage points above the results of the Jerome model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 6.0 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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