Jerome model in Texas: Trump with small lead

The Jerome model released an updated prediction of the election result. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 46.8% for Clinton and 53.2% for Trump in Texas. In comparison, on August 7 Trump was predicted to collect 0.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Hence, you should not put too much trust in the results of an individual econometric model. Rather, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

If we look at an average of Texas econometric models, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 57.0%. This value is 3.8 percentage points higher than his respective numbers in the Jerome model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 55.5% of the two-party vote in Texas, which is 2.3 percentage points above the results of the Jerome model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 5.9 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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