Jerome model: Clinton in North Carolina trails by a small margin

The Jerome model is part of the econometric models component of the PollyVote. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 47.2% for Clinton and 52.8% for Trump in North Carolina. In comparison, on August 7, Clinton was predicted to win 52.8% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Individual econometric models should be interpreted with caution, because they can include substantial biases. Rather than relying on results from single econometric models, one should rely on combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon different methods and data.

Results vs. other econometric models

Looking at an average of North Carolina econometric models, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 53.2%. This value is 0.4 percentage points higher than his respective numbers in the Jerome model.

The Jerome model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction

The results of the Jerome model for Trump are thus 1.5 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 51.3% in North Carolina. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 5.5 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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