The Jerome model enters the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. The model expects that Clinton will achieve 47.8% of the two-party vote share in Kentucky, whereas Trump will end up with 52.2%.
Putting the results in context
Individual econometric models should be interpreted with caution, since they can incorporate substantial errors. At least, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results in comparison to other econometric models
Trump can currently count on 58.4% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models in Kentucky. In comparison to his numbers in the Jerome model Trump's econometric model average is 6.2 percentage points better.
The Jerome model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 59.9% of the two-party vote in Kentucky, which is 7.7 percentage points above the results of the Jerome model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 5.0 percentage points higher.