Jerome model in Kentucky: Trump with small lead

The Jerome model is included in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. The model forecasts that Clinton will collect 47.8% of the two-party vote share in Kentucky, whereas Trump will end up with 52.2%. In comparison, on August 7, Clinton was predicted to achieve 52.2% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, since they sometimes contain large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single econometric models, the recommended strategy look at combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Kentucky sees Trump at 58.4% of the two-party vote. This value is 6.2 percentage points higher than his respective numbers in the Jerome model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The results of the Jerome model for Trump are thus 7.7 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 59.9% in Kentucky. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 4.9 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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