The Jerome model is included in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 48.1% for Clinton and 51.9% for Trump in Arkansas.
Putting the results in context
Individual econometric models should be regarded with caution, as they can contain substantial biases. At least, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other econometric models
Looking at an average of Arkansas econometric models, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 58.5%. This value is 6.6 percentage points higher than his respective numbers in the Jerome model.
The Jerome model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The results of the Jerome model for Trump are thus 5.1 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 57.0% in Arkansas. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 4.7 percentage points higher.