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Jerome model: Trump with small lead in Arkansas

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The Jerome model is included in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 48.1% for Clinton and 51.9% for Trump in Arkansas.

Putting the results in context

Individual econometric models should be regarded with caution, as they can contain substantial biases. At least, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

Looking at an average of Arkansas econometric models, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 58.5%. This value is 6.6 percentage points higher than his respective numbers in the Jerome model.

The Jerome model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

The results of the Jerome model for Trump are thus 5.1 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 57.0% in Arkansas. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 4.7 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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