Jerome model in West Virginia: Trump is in the lead

The Jerome model is included in the econometric models component of the PollyVote. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 46.0% for Clinton and 54.0% for Trump in West Virginia.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, you should not have too much faith in the results of a single econometric model. At the very least, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

Trump currently achieves 60.4% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models in West Virginia. This value is 6.4 percentage points higher than his corresponding numbers in the Jerome model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The results of the Jerome model for Trump are thus 7.9 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 61.9% in West Virginia. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 6.8 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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