Louisiana: Jerome model shows Trump in the lead

The Jerome model provided an updated prediction of the election outcome. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 46.7% for Clinton and 53.3% for Trump in Louisiana.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, as they sometimes incorporate large errors. Rather, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results compared to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Louisiana sees Trump at 57.5% of the two-party vote. This value is 4.2 percentage points higher than his corresponding numbers in the Jerome model.

The Jerome model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

The results of the Jerome model for Trump are thus 4.4 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 57.7% in Louisiana. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 6.1 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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