The Jerome model is captured in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. The model expects that Clinton will obtain 43.0% of the two-party vote share in South Dakota, while Trump will end up with 57.0%.
Putting the results in context
Single econometric models often include substantial biases, which is why they should be treated with caution. At least, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other econometric models
Trump currently achieves 59.6% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models in South Dakota. This value is 2.6 percentage points higher than his respective numbers in the Jerome model.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 59.3% of the two-party vote in South Dakota, which is 2.3 percentage points above the results of the Jerome model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 9.8 percentage points higher.