The Jerome model is included in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. The model's forecast is that Clinton will collect 42.8% of the two-party vote share in Arizona, whereas Trump will win 57.2%.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, as they can contain large errors. Rather, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results in comparison to other econometric models
If we look at an average of Arizona econometric models, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 57.3%. This value is 0.1 percentage points higher than his corresponding numbers in the Jerome model.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 54.1% of the two-party vote in Arizona, which is 3.1 percentage points below the results of the Jerome model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 10.0 percentage points higher.