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Jerome model in Arizona: Trump is in the lead

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The Jerome model is included in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. The model's forecast is that Clinton will collect 42.8% of the two-party vote share in Arizona, whereas Trump will win 57.2%.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, as they can contain large errors. Rather, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

If we look at an average of Arizona econometric models, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 57.3%. This value is 0.1 percentage points higher than his corresponding numbers in the Jerome model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 54.1% of the two-party vote in Arizona, which is 3.1 percentage points below the results of the Jerome model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 10.0 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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