Jerome model: Clinton with very clear lead

The Jerome model released an updated prediction of the election result. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 86.4% for Clinton and 13.6% for Trump. In comparison, on August 7, Clinton was predicted to win only 13.6% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Hence, one should not have too much faith in the results of a single econometric model. Rather, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

Clinton can currently count on 89.2% of the two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models. This value is 2.8 percentage points higher than her respective numbers in the Jerome model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 3.9 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 90.3%. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 33.7 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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