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Jerome model: Trump in New York trails by a clear margin


The Jerome model provided an updated prediction of the election outcome. The model forecasts that Clinton will receive 58.9% of the two-party vote share in New York, whereas Trump will win 41.1%.

Putting the results in context

Individual econometric models can contain substantial errors, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. At the very least, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

Looking at an average of New York econometric models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 60.7%. Compared to her numbers in the Jerome model Clinton's econometric model average is 1.8 percentage points better.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 60.6% of the two-party vote in New York, which is 1.7 percentage points above the results of the Jerome model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 6.1 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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