The Jerome model enters the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 52.2% for Clinton and 47.8% for Trump in New Mexico.
Putting the results in context
Single econometric models often include large biases, which is why they should be treated with caution. Rather, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other econometric models
An average of recent econometric models in New Mexico sees Clinton at 52.6% of the two-party vote. Relative to her numbers in the Jerome model Clinton's econometric model average is 0.4 percentage points higher.
The Jerome model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 1.1 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 53.3% in New Mexico. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 0.6 percentage points lower.