Jerome model: Trump in New Hampshire trails by a moderate margin

The Jerome model is included in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 54.1% for Clinton and 45.9% for Trump in New Hampshire. In comparison, on August 7 Trump was still predicted to collect 0.0% of the vote.

New Hampshire is traditionally a purple state, where the Democratic and Republican candidates have historically won similar voter support. This is why the election outcome here is considered critical in determining the overall result of the presidential election.

Putting the results in context

Individual econometric models should be regarded with caution, as they often incorporate substantial biases. Rather than relying on results from single econometric models, forecasting research recommends to rely on combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon different methods and data.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in New Hampshire has Clinton at 52.3% of the two-party vote. Compared to her numbers in the Jerome model Clinton's econometric model average is 1.8 percentage points lower.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 1.9 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 52.2% in New Hampshire. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 1.4 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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