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Jerome model: Clinton with comfortable lead in Illinois

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The Jerome model released an updated forecast of the election outcome. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 54.4% for Clinton and 45.6% for Trump in Illinois. In comparison, on August 7 Trump was still predicted to obtain 0.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, as they sometimes incorporate large errors. Rather than relying on results from single econometric models, you should consult combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on different methods and data.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

Clinton is currently at 54.0% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models in Illinois. Compared to her numbers in the Jerome model Clinton's econometric model average is 0.4 percentage points lower.

The Jerome model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction

PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 57.3% of the two-party vote in Illinois, which is 2.9 percentage points above the results of the Jerome model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 1.7 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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