The Jerome model released an updated forecast of the election outcome. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 53.5% for Clinton and 46.5% for Trump in Connecticut. In comparison, on August 7 Trump was still predicted to win 0.0% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Individual econometric models should be treated with caution, since they often include large errors. At least, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results compared to other econometric models
An average of recent econometric models in Connecticut has Clinton at 55.1% of the two-party vote. This value is 1.6 percentage points higher than her respective numbers in the Jerome model.
The Jerome model compared with PollyVote's forecast
PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 54.6% of the two-party vote in Connecticut, which is 1.1 percentage points above the results of the Jerome model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 0.8 percentage points higher.