The Jerome model is captured in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. The model expects that Clinton will collect 53.3% of the two-party vote share in California, while Trump will end up with 46.7%. In comparison, on August 7, Clinton was predicted to end up with only 46.7% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Individual econometric models often contain substantial errors, and should be treated with caution. Rather, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other econometric models
An average of recent econometric models in California sees Clinton at 56.6% of the two-party vote. Relative to her numbers in the Jerome model Clinton's econometric model average is 3.3 percentage points better.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 59.3% of the two-party vote in California, which is 6.0 percentage points above the results of the Jerome model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 0.6 percentage points higher.