The Jerome model published an updated prediction of the election result. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 55.1% for Clinton and 44.9% for Trump in Wisconsin. In comparison, on August 7 Trump was still predicted to obtain 0.0% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Single econometric models should be regarded with caution, because they may contain large biases. At least, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results compared to other econometric models
Clinton currently runs at 53.1% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models in Wisconsin. This value is 2.0 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Jerome model.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 1.9 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 53.2% in Wisconsin. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 2.4 percentage points higher.