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Jerome model in Wisconsin: Clinton is in the lead

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The Jerome model published an updated prediction of the election result. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 55.1% for Clinton and 44.9% for Trump in Wisconsin. In comparison, on August 7 Trump was still predicted to obtain 0.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Single econometric models should be regarded with caution, because they may contain large biases. At least, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results compared to other econometric models

Clinton currently runs at 53.1% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models in Wisconsin. This value is 2.0 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Jerome model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 1.9 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 53.2% in Wisconsin. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 2.4 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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