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Jerome model: Trump with comfortable lead in West Virginia


The Jerome model is included in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 46.0% for Clinton and 54.0% for Trump in West Virginia. In comparison, on August 7, Clinton was predicted to achieve 54.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Individual econometric models should be regarded with caution, since they can include substantial biases. Rather than relying on results from single econometric models, one should use combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates different methods and data.

Results vs. other econometric models

Trump can currently count on 60.4% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models in West Virginia. This value is 6.4 percentage points higher than his respective numbers in the Jerome model.

The Jerome model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction

PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 61.9% of the two-party vote in West Virginia, which is 7.9 percentage points above the results of the Jerome model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 6.7 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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