The Jerome model is part of the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. The model forecasts that Clinton will obtain 44.3% of the two-party vote share in Virginia, whereas Trump will end up with 55.7%.
Historically, Virginia has been a swing state, in which neither the Republican Party nor the Democratic Party has had overwhelming support to clinch its electoral college votes. This is the reason why forecasts here are of particular importance.
Putting the results in context
Single econometric models may contain large errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. Rather, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results in comparison to other econometric models
Trump is currently at 53.1% of the two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models in Virginia. In comparison to his numbers in the Jerome model Trump's econometric model average is 2.6 percentage points worse.
The Jerome model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 49.8% of the two-party vote in Virginia, which is 5.9 percentage points below the results of the Jerome model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 8.5 percentage points higher.