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Jerome model: Clinton with comfortable lead in Vermont


The Jerome model released an updated prediction of the election result. The model expects that Clinton will obtain 54.2% of the two-party vote share in Vermont, whereas Trump will win 45.8%.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, as they may contain large errors. Rather than relying on results from single econometric models, the best practice is to look at combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates different methods and data.

Comparison to other econometric models

Clinton can currently count on 60.4% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models in Vermont. This value is 6.2 percentage points higher than her respective numbers in the Jerome model.

The Jerome model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 6.5 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 60.7% in Vermont. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 1.4 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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