Jerome model in Tennessee: Trump with small lead

The Jerome model provided an updated prediction of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will collect 47.8% of the two-party vote share in Tennessee, whereas Trump will win 52.2%. In comparison, on August 7 Trump was predicted to collect 0.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of an individual econometric model. Instead of trusting the results from single econometric models, you should use combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

Looking at an average of Tennessee econometric models, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 57.8%. In comparison to his numbers in the Jerome model Trump's econometric model average is 5.6 percentage points higher.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The results of the Jerome model for Trump are thus 3.9 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 56.1% in Tennessee. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 4.9 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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