Jerome model in South Carolina: Trump is in the lead

The Jerome model published an updated forecast of the election outcome. The model's forecast is that Clinton will obtain 46.6% of the two-party vote share in South Carolina, whereas Trump will win 53.4%.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, as they may contain large errors. Rather, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in South Carolina sees Trump at 55.7% of the two-party vote. Compared to his numbers in the Jerome model Trump's econometric model average is 2.3 percentage points better.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 55.4% of the two-party vote in South Carolina, which is 2.0 percentage points above the results of the Jerome model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 6.2 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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