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Jerome model: Trump with comfortable lead in South Carolina

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The Jerome model provided an updated forecast of the election outcome. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 46.6% for Clinton and 53.4% for Trump in South Carolina. In comparison, on August 7 Trump was predicted to obtain 0.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Single econometric models should be treated with caution, since they often include substantial errors. Rather than relying on results from single econometric models, research in forecasting recommends to look at combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

Trump is currently at 55.7% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models in South Carolina. This value is 2.3 percentage points higher than his respective numbers in the Jerome model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The results of the Jerome model for Trump are thus 2.0 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 55.4% in South Carolina. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 6.1 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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