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Jerome model in North Carolina: Trump is in the lead

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The Jerome model is captured in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 47.2% for Clinton and 52.8% for Trump in North Carolina.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, as they often incorporate large errors. At the very least, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in North Carolina sees Trump at 53.2% of the two-party vote. This value is 0.4 percentage points higher than his corresponding numbers in the Jerome model.

The Jerome model compared with PollyVote's forecast

The results of the Jerome model for Trump are thus 1.5 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 51.3% in North Carolina. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 5.6 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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