Jerome model: Clinton with clear lead in New York

The Jerome model is captured in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 58.9% for Clinton and 41.1% for Trump in New York. In comparison, on August 7, Clinton was predicted to collect only 41.1% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Individual econometric models may contain substantial errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. At the very least, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

Clinton can currently count on 60.7% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models in New York. In comparison to her numbers in the Jerome model Clinton's econometric model average is 1.8 percentage points higher.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 1.7 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 60.6% in New York. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 6.2 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.