The Jerome model is included in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. The model expects that Clinton will obtain 57.7% of the two-party vote share in New Jersey, whereas Trump will win 42.3%.
Putting the results in context
Single econometric models often incorporate substantial biases, which is why they should be treated with caution. Instead of relying on results from single econometric models, the evidence-based approach is to consult combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates different methods and data.
Results in comparison to other econometric models
Clinton currently achieves 57.3% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models in New Jersey. This value is 0.4 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the Jerome model.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 0.3 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 57.4% in New Jersey. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 4.9 percentage points higher.