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Jerome model in New Hampshire: Clinton with comfortable lead


The Jerome model released an updated prediction of the election outcome. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 54.1% for Clinton and 45.9% for Trump in New Hampshire.

New Hampshire is traditionally a purple state, where the GOP and the Democrats have historically won similar voter support. Therefore, the election outcome in that state is regarded critical in determining which party will win the majority of electoral votes.

Putting the results in context

Single econometric models should be regarded with caution, since they may contain large biases. At least, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results vs. other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in New Hampshire has Clinton at 52.3% of the two-party vote. Compared to her numbers in the Jerome model Clinton's econometric model average is 1.8 percentage points worse.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 52.2% of the two-party vote in New Hampshire, which is 1.9 percentage points below the results of the Jerome model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 1.3 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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