Jerome model: Trump with comfortable lead in Montana

The Jerome model provided an updated forecast of the election outcome. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 45.3% for Clinton and 54.7% for Trump in Montana. In comparison, on August 7 Trump was predicted to garner 0.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, as they can incorporate large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single econometric models, research in forecasting recommends to rely on combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that includes different methods and data.

Results compared to other econometric models

Looking at an average of Montana econometric models, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 57.3%. Relative to his numbers in the Jerome model Trump's econometric model average is 2.6 percentage points higher.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 57.1% of the two-party vote in Montana, which is 2.4 percentage points above the results of the Jerome model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 7.4 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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