The Jerome model enters the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. The model forecasts that Clinton will receive 47.4% of the two-party vote share in Missouri, while Trump will end up with 52.6%. In comparison, on August 7, Clinton was predicted to achieve 52.6% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Individual econometric models should be treated with caution, since they can include substantial errors. At the very least, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other econometric models
Trump is currently at 55.0% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models in Missouri. Relative to his numbers in the Jerome model Trump's econometric model average is 2.4 percentage points better.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The results of the Jerome model for Trump are thus 2.1 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 54.7% in Missouri. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 5.3 percentage points higher.