The Jerome model provided an updated prediction of the election outcome. The model predicts that Clinton will achieve 47.4% of the two-party vote share in Missouri, while Trump will win 52.6%.
Putting the results in context
Individual econometric models may incorporate substantial biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Rather than relying on results from single econometric models, the recommended strategy consult combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
Comparison to other econometric models
Trump currently runs at 55.0% of the two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models in Missouri. Compared to his numbers in the Jerome model Trump's econometric model average is 2.4 percentage points higher.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The results of the Jerome model for Trump are thus 2.1 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 54.7% in Missouri. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 5.4 percentage points higher.