Jerome model in Mississippi: Trump is in the lead

The Jerome model published an updated prediction of the election outcome. The model predicts that Clinton will achieve 46.2% of the two-party vote share in Mississippi, whereas Trump will win 53.8%. In comparison, on August 7 Trump was predicted to win 0.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Individual econometric models should be regarded with caution, because they can include substantial errors. Instead of relying on results from single econometric models, we recommend to consult combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to other econometric models

Looking at an average of Mississippi econometric models, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 56.2%. This value is 2.4 percentage points higher than his respective numbers in the Jerome model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The results are consistent with the prediction from PollyVote for Mississippi. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 6.5 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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